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Khus the Red

Beginning Again

Some of you may recall my home port of The Pond, home of the estimable Red Clad Loon. As Admiral Loon completes work that has taken his attention from his own body of water, an interesting thing happened on my way to sailing into the sunset; summer rolled on, a man’s thoughts turn to Red, and an old, familiar ache began in my battle-scarred hands. There is much to think about in the days ahead, some of it worthy to say, and it turns out that a decommissioning would not let this Red one rest easy. Time has come to weigh anchor and sharpen the steel.

Questions, speculation, dissention, conjecture, hope and disgust. The worst offseason NU fans have ever had to endure has happened for a second consecutive year. Two years of rough seas and long voyages in between solid football ground have taught us at least one thing: a lack of certainty among the NU faithful soon begins to look a lot like scurvy settling over a ship of otherwise hearty souls. And there is no better cure for both than a Bowl of oranges.

However, while anything is possible, a FedEx miracle will not happen this year. Far too much of what has been said in recent months was said a year ago; same conversation, just different proper nouns. The difference under the unrest is that last year the Red faithful were wondering how much things would change, and this year we’re wondering, with all the changes, will anything be recognizable? Since the Spring Game there already has been a lot of ground covered, and I’ll try to keep this conversation from becoming a re-treading of already worn paths.

At the very least, it seems that if a change to anything like the WCO was going to happen, this NU team is better suited for it than many would have been. Strong defense in general, a better WR and TE corps than we’ve had in quite some time and a QB who was hailed as Syracuse’s next Donavan McNabb before a recruiting coup de Gill. The irony isn’t lost on this Norseman that while NU ran a semi-option offense it managed to recruit a QB who wasn’t really suited for the option, and now that non-option QB won’t be running the option after all, which he didn’t really like anyways, and instead will be in command of a balanced offense that he is much more suited for, and he has landed in the lap of an NFL coaching staff that will give him a better shot at the pros than any other Husker slinger in recent history. Interesting how an inches-thick playbook can look like a winning lottery ticket.

Ah, but the O-line. This unit is simply not one that will overpower very many opponents. There was improvement under Cotton last year, but looking for consistency under Wagner will be must-see TV, especially given the reshuffling of Incognito, the only dominant player on the line, to center. Beyond the obvious depth and raw talent concerns, this group has been two steps behind the conference elites strength and conditioning-wise for a few years, and one season with Brian Bailey and one off-season with Dave Kennedy is not enough to fix that.

Callahan’s description of his system has been a Steve Ballmer-esque mantra of flexibility, flexibility, flexibility, but this year that will be true out of necessity rather than by choice. This offense will be able to run on lesser opponents, but against Mizzou, KSU and OU, “flexibility” will need to translate into short drops, correct reads and routes and taking advantage of blitzes so the run has a chance to develop. I am willing to donate my most prized battle helmet to Dailey for him to protect his gray matter even as he walks around campus, because his brain will be more important than either his arm or legs. The helmet is one-size-fits-all in case Jordan Adams earns it, but unfortunately it is not designed for spleens.

Before fall camp begins this year, we again find ourselves scanning a roster and reading coach biographies; we again do not have the luxury of prior history of this version of the program. We know the depth chart going in, and we know it may change. We know there is talent on this team, and we know it is probably not enough to win the conference. We know exactly what the West Coast Offense is, and we know that everyone else’s understanding of it is utterly wrong. Beyond these certainties, there are only degrees of probability.

For instance, if one believes NU has a 50% chance of beating Kansas State and a 50% chance of beating Missouri, common sense would seem to dictate that the chances of beating both drops to 25%, or zero if one hates Steve Pederson. However, any mathematician, and even the occasional pseudo-mathematician, will tell you that all odds are independent of one another. Meaning, if you roll a die five times and get 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5, your odds of rolling a 6 on the sixth roll are—all together now—still only 1 in 6.

So let’s get more specific. A brief look at the most dangerous conference games reveals odds that make the Powerball Retirement Plan seem like sound financial advice. However, while I give Callahan and crew only a 35% chance of winning the North in their maiden voyage, odds are constantly in flux. Players develop. Coaches inspire. Weather equalizes. Favorites fail. Things change. Always do.

Texas Tech is the fifth game of the season, but still may come early enough to cause weeping and gnashing of foam cob hats. The new Red offense will still be frighteningly green, and facing a veteran defense so early is a greater concern for us than the Tech offense is for the Blackshirts. While Tech may not have superior talent from top to bottom, they graduated almost no one. They get us on their schedule after playing OU and before Texas and KSU. We will be a must-win for them to keep momentum, or most likely, try to regain it after a loss to OU in a murderous four-game stretch. Mike Leach, how are those expectations feeling? Your cutesy-pie offense hasn’t outfoxed any coaches in the XII yet, and I’m doubting an NFL mind like Callahan will be flummoxed. 60% says the plane ride back from Lubbock is pleasant.

Kansas State scheduled later in the year is naturally a plus, but it also gives the purple ones time to develop their own QB. Every time KSU breaks in a new one they struggle, but last year without Roberson for a few games they utterly suffered. Otherwise, it’s the same old story in Manhattan; graduate a bunch of guys, dip the spatula into a tub of JUCO and putty the holes shut. This game will feature similarly strong defenses, and barring injuries, shortages of individually-wrapped pats of butter or other unforeseeable catastrophes, the advantage going into this one will largely depend on the comparative development of opposing quarterbacks. However, at this point it appears that NU has two viable candidates for starter while KSU is scrambling to find one. 65% says the universe is correctly realigned.

Missouri will be a problem. Certainly they have a number of holes to fill (OL, WR, P), but by this point in the season they may have patched them. Brad Smith needs no analysis from me, but he’ll be throwing into the teeth of this NU squad, the secondary. However, Mizzou’s greatest advantage is that they know what it feels like to beat Nebraska. Overcoming that decades-old mountain last year was a greater challenge than winning in Lincoln would be this year. I would like to be on the bandwagon that easily dismisses the Tigers, but they will be dangerous. Chalice-is-half-full as I tend to be, our chances to come out with a W are 40%. If the home fans join me in bringing the battle axes to the degree Notre Dame was (un)welcomed, the odds may be evened.

Oklahoma. In Norman. 19 returning starters. Despite the fact that their new co-defensive coordinator can’t stop mobile QBs, 20% seems generous.

Of course, on any one of the above there is at best a 70% chance that I am right, a 45% chance that all are accurate and an overall margin of error of plus or minus 20%.

The beginning of fall practice is finally only days away. Impatience for this season is understandable, but early impatience with this coaching staff is unacceptable. It deserves at least as much latitude as the previous one.

Stay the course. Questions will soon begin to have answers, and uncertainty will soon be put to rest. We’ll talk again.