College Football Betting Guide: Friday 11/20/20

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.

For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model. All advanced statistics are courtesy of the S&P individual team statistical profiles, except where noted.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you’re seeing the most updated information.

Syracuse vs. Louisville

Syracuse +18.5: 3 Stars out of 5

Syracuse is off to a brutal 1-7 start, but this week they will be facing a similarly floundering Louisville team that is off to a slightly better 2-6 start. Both teams are 1-6 in the conference, so you wouldn’t think there would be much to separate them, but Louisville remains a large favorite.

Our model does give Louisville an 87% chance to win the game. But we have the final score being 31.99-18.41, and we give Syracuse a 61.9% chance to cover.

Overall, we don’t fancy Syracuse’s chance to win this one outright despite the similar records, but we do think the 18.5-point line is a little too much.

Purdue vs. Minnesota

Minnesota +2.5: 4 Stars out of 5

Purdue is off to a pretty good start this season at 2-1, but it should be noted one of their victories came against an Illinois team that had their roster highly impacted by COVID. Last week the Boilermakers came back down to reality a bit with a loss to Northwestern, but they were able to keep it fairly close at 27-20.

On the flip side, Minnesota got their lone victory against COVID-ridden Illinois, but at 41-14, it was much more convincing win than Purdue’s seven-point victory.

Our model has Minnesota winning a close game by a final of 31.28-28.41. We give the Gophers a 69.63% chance to cover as home ‘dogs, making this a four-star bet.

New Mexico vs. Air Force

Air Force -7.5: 5 Stars out of 5

New Mexico is 0-3 this year, and this comes on the heels of a 2-10 season (0-8 in conference) the year prior. There is no reason to believe the Lobos will be able to turn their season around in 2020.

On the other side, Air Force got off to a hot start with a blowout win over Navy, but they followed up that with back-to-back losses in the conference to put them at 1-2. They’re coming off an 11-2 campaign, so there should still be some talent there, but certainly Air Force is not the same team they were last year.

Our model likes Air Force to cover the 7.5 points, giving them a 77.74% likelihood to do so. This is our most confident pick of the night, and we have it as a five-star bet.