NHL Betting Guide for February 22nd

This past weekend had a little bit of everything; the NHL Outdoors games made headlines after dealing with sun and ice issues, games had to be re-scheduled to make up COVID-19 postponements, and the under trend from last week finally started to correct itself. With 35 games between now and Friday, there’s plenty of entertaining hockey to gorge ourselves on.

Here’s what we’re looking at tonight!

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Calgary Flames, Moneyline, Total, and Odds

Moneyline: Leafs -166, Flames +140

Spread: Leafs -1.5 (+162), Flames +1.5 (-194)

Total: O6.5 -105

Odds to Win Stanley Cup: Leafs +1100|Flames +2800

Odds courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk-free for up to $1,000!

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Calgary Flames News, Analysis, and Picks

The Toronto Maple Leafs have embraced advanced metrics more than any other team in the NHL, and that’s reflected in the on-ice product. After posting an expected goals-for percentage below 50.0% in six of their first 10 games, they have gone on to outplay their opponents in nine straight games.

Toronto has relied on tidier defensive efforts to limit their opponents’ chances, giving up single-digit high-danger chances in six of those nine games. Scoring-chances against are also trending down, as opponents are below-average in six of nine games.

That’s going to be troublesome for a Calgary Flames squad struggling to find the back of the net. The Flames have scored exactly one goal in four of their last five games. They’ll be hard-pressed to increase output when they have fewer opportunities to capitalize on.

Likely, the Flames PDO bottomed-out against the Edmonton Oilers in the 7-1 shellacking on Saturday night, and they should start to trend upwards. But everything would have to go right for the Flames to win this one. Keeping a dangerous Leafs team off the score sheet or keeping pace offensively both seem unlikely for the Flames.

This kind of feels like low-hanging fruit, but -166 on the Leafs is not worth passing up. The Leafs are in the middle of a home-friendly month, with nine of 12 games coming on home ice. This month, through nine games, they have a +19 goal differential and have covered the puckline in six of their seven wins. -1.5 might not be worth passing up either.

There’s something to be said about skating on a line with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner. Since returning to the lineup, Joe Thornton has seven points in four games, including an assist in all four games. His assists prop listed at over 0.5 +154, and considering how productive his linemates have been, the over 0.5 assists is a wager worth making.

Florida Panthers vs. Dallas Stars, Moneyline, Total, and Odds

Moneyline: Panthers -124, Stars +106

Spread: Panthers -1.5 (+230), Stars +1.5 (-280)

Total: O5.5 -110

Odds to Win Stanley Cup: Panthers +3100|Stars +2400

Odds courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk-free for up to $1,000!

Florida Panthers vs. Dallas Stars News, Analysis, and Picks

Just about everything has gone wrong for the Dallas Stars this season. First, they had to deal with a COVID-19 breakout before the season got started. Then most recently, weather issues impacted what was supposed to be a home-friendly part of their schedule. Now they return to the road, where they kick-off a five-game in eight-night against two of the best teams in their division.

The Stars’ normally stingy defense is what’s been letting them down recently. They have given up at least three goals in seven of their last nine games, going 2-3-4. Opponents are piling up chances against the Stars, hitting double-digit scoring chances from high-danger areas in three of the Stars’ last four games. Scoring chances are also trending in the wrong direction, with teams managing above-average chances in four straight. Expect the Stars to clean things up defensively.

Both teams have some pronounced defensive metrics. The Panthers have given up more than nine high-danger chances just three times this season and don’t mortgage their structure for a few extra chances. The Stars play a similar brand, focused more on limiting opponents than creating chances. Those metrics align with the under 5.5, which is where your money should be at puck drop.

It’s also worth noting that the Stars also only have one win in four road games this season. Conversely, the Panthers are 5-2-1 at home and 6-1-1 when Chris Driedger starts. Getting the Panthers as a short home favorite against a team that hasn’t played in nine days is the wager to make.

The long layoff might impact how the Stars come out, and they may be a little flat out of the gate. Florida did come out hot in each of their last two games, covering the first-period puckline. Therefore, there’s value in backing Florida in this spot at -0.5 +170.